#JapanYield29YearHigh

Hie Orbiters LET'S SEE WHY THIS GLOBAL MACRO SIGNAL MATTERS Japanese 29-year government bond yields just hit their highest level in nearly three decades. This is more significant than most retail traders realize. What it really means: Japan is exiting decades of ultra-loose monetary policy and yield curve control. Higher domestic yields reduce the incentive for Japanese investors to chase returns overseas (unwinding of the famous Yen carry trade). It signals improving domestic growth and inflation expectations in the world’s 3rd largest economy. BTC Correlation Data (Historical Context): During the major 2024 Yen carry trade unwind (when JGB yields rose sharply), Bitcoin dropped -18% in just 10 days. In periods of rising Japanese yields + stronger Yen, BTC has shown an average -0.65 to -0.78 correlation with USDJPY in the short term (1-4 weeks). Higher JGB yields often tighten global liquidity, pressuring high-beta assets like BTC and altcoins first. Trading Implications: This normalization typically supports a stronger Yen and can create short-term risk-off pressure. I’m monitoring USDJPY closely — any sustained rise in Japanese yields tends to trigger volatility windows in Bitcoin, gold, and equities. A key macro puzzle piece is worth tracking in the coming weeks. What’s your view on rising Japanese yields? Do you see it as a short-term headwind for BTC or a longer-term healthy rebalancing? #JapanYield29YearHigh

Japan's 30-year government bond yield just hit a 29-year high, and the implications ripple across every risk asset on earth -- including crypto. When Japanese yields rise, the yen carry trade unwinds. Money cheaply borrowed in yen to buy higher-yielding assets gets pulled back. That flow reversal hits equities, bonds, and crypto simultaneously. We saw a version of this in August 2025 when a surprise BOJ hike triggered a flash crash across markets. The stakes are real. BTC is at $81,143 and the market has been quietly grinding higher on ETF inflows and institutional demand. But the yen carry trade is estimated in the hundreds of billions -- if it unwinds sharply, liquidity gets pulled from everywhere at once. Add tonight's CPI print to the mix and you have two macro wildcards in the same 24-hour window. That is the kind of setup that separates steady hands from panic sellers. The silver lining: if Japan's yield spike reflects genuine economic optimism rather than forced selling, it could signal a broader global recovery trade -- which historically benefits risk assets. This is not a simple bearish signal. But it is a reminder that BTC's correlation to global macro has not disappeared. How is the Japan yield spike affecting your crypto positioning today? #JapanYield29YearHigh

HIGH INTEREST RATES ARE STARTING TO BREAK GOVERNMENTS. For years, the global economy was built around cheap money. Governments borrowed aggressively. Companies borrowed aggressively. Consumers borrowed aggressively. Now interest rates are staying high, and the cost of carrying all that debt is starting to explode. This is becoming one of the biggest macro risks in the world right now. The US alone is now paying around $1 TRILLION per year just on interest payments for its national debt. Interest payments are now larger than US defense spending, Medicare, and almost every major federal spending category except Social Security. And the problem is getting worse very quickly. The US government now needs to refinance trillions of dollars of old debt that was issued when interest rates were near zero. Around $9 TRILLION of US debt needs refinancing over the next 12 months alone. But today, new debt is being issued at much higher yields. That means every new round of borrowing becomes far more expensive than before. And this is not just an American problem. Governments across the world are now facing the same pressure: Higher refinancing costs. Larger deficits. Slower growth. Weak tax revenues. Rising interest expenses. Japan is now dealing with bond yields at levels not seen in decades after years of ultra-low rates. Its 10Y government bond yield recently hit a 29-year high. The UK bond market has also surged to levels last seen in the late 1990s. Several European economies are already under growing fiscal pressure from weak growth and rising debt costs. At the same time, central banks are trapped. If they keep rates high, debt pressure gets worse, borrowing slows, and growth weakens further. But if they cut rates too early, inflation risks returning, especially with oil prices rising again and supply chains facing new pressure. This is why bond markets have become so important again. Governments now depend heavily on stable borrowing costs to keep the system functioning smoothly. $BTC

👁️ Hello Orbiters, LET’S TALK ABOUT WHY THIS GLOBAL MACRO SIGNAL MATTERS 🌍 Japanese 29-year government bond yields have climbed to their highest levels in nearly three decades — and this development is far more important than many market participants realize. What does this potentially signal? Japan appears to be gradually moving away from the ultra-loose monetary policies and yield curve control measures that defined its economy for years. As domestic bond yields rise, Japanese investors may become less motivated to seek higher returns overseas. This can contribute to a gradual unwinding of the well-known Yen carry trade that has historically supplied liquidity into global risk assets. At the same time, rising yields may also reflect improving inflation expectations and stronger domestic economic conditions within one of the world’s largest economies. 📊 Historical Market Context During previous periods of aggressive Yen carry trade unwinding, rising Japanese bond yields were associated with increased volatility across global markets. Bitcoin, in particular, has historically shown sensitivity to shifts in liquidity conditions tied to the Yen and USDJPY movements during short-term macro stress windows. Higher Japanese yields can sometimes contribute to tighter global liquidity conditions, which often impacts high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies, growth equities, and speculative sectors first. 📌 Trading Perspective A stronger Yen environment combined with rising Japanese yields may create short-term risk-off pressure across markets. That’s why USDJPY remains an important macro indicator to monitor in the coming weeks. Sustained yield increases in Japan could influence volatility across Bitcoin, equities, commodities, and broader risk assets. Macro conditions are becoming increasingly interconnected, and signals like these are important pieces of the larger liquidity puzzle. What’s your perspective on rising Japanese yields?

Things are getting out of control! Japanese government bond yields are now at 29 year highs. Both the 10yr & 20yr rate are at levels not seen since 1997. Let's not forget Japan has a 236% debt to GDP. I'm sure it will sort itself out...

JUST IN: 🇯🇵 Japan's 10Y bond yield just hit 2.56%, its highest level in 29 years. Insights: End of ultra-cheap money: Less global liquidity from Japan Risk assets pressure: Stocks, crypto, EM may face outflows Stronger yen risk: Higher yields attract capital back to Japan Carry trade unwind: Could trigger global volatility Policy shift: Japan moving toward normal interest rate environment Bottom line: Global liquidity is tightening, which is usually bearish for risk assets. #USAprilCPITonight #TradeStocksOnOKX #WarshTakesFedChair

Hie Orbiters⚠️🚨 LET'S SEE WHY THIS GLOBAL MACRO SIGNAL MATTERS Japanese 29-year government bond yields just hit their highest level in nearly three decades. This is more significant than most retail traders realize. What it really means: Japan is exiting decades of ultra-loose monetary policy and yield curve control. Higher domestic yields reduce the incentive for Japanese investors to chase returns overseas (unwinding of the famous Yen carry trade). It signals improving domestic growth and inflation expectations in the world’s 3rd largest economy. BTC Correlation Data (Historical Context): During the major 2024 Yen carry trade unwind (when JGB yields rose sharply), Bitcoin dropped -18% in just 10 days. In periods of rising Japanese yields + stronger Yen, BTC has shown an average -0.65 to -0.78 correlation with USDJPY in the short term (1-4 weeks). Higher JGB yields often tighten global liquidity, pressuring high-beta assets like BTC and altcoins first. Trading Implications: This normalization typically supports a stronger Yen and can create short-term risk-off pressure. I’m monitoring USDJPY closely — any sustained rise in Japanese yields tends to trigger volatility windows in Bitcoin, gold, and equities. A key macro puzzle piece is worth tracking in the coming weeks. What’s your view on rising Japanese yields? Do you see it as a short-term headwind for BTC or a longer-term healthy rebalancing? #JapanYield29YearHigh

JP10Y 2.54% Nobody is talking about it

Japan and South Korea surge wildly, US stocks hit new highs Global capital is staging a party where no one wants to get off the ride 🎢 ——$BTC #MissingOutIsMorePainfulThanLosingMoney ——$ETH Nikkei 225 rose 5.58% in one go on May 7 surpassing 63,000 points intraday setting a new all-time high SoftBank surged 18% in a single day, Ibiden rose an absurd 22% ——$DOGE South Korea's KOSPI is even more extreme up 85% since 2026, leading the world JPMorgan raised its target price twice within a month optimistic about reaching 10,000 points ——#US April CPI recorded 3.8%, exceeding expectations Everything seems to say: If you don't buy now, you'll miss out forever ——#Trade US stocks on OKX: from Nvidia to SpaceX Semiconductors are the engine of this rally Samsung and SK Hynix account for nearly 40% of the Korean stock market's market cap Amid the global AI computing power expansion wave semiconductor and hardware stocks in Korea, Japan, and Taiwan have become the new main battleground for capital ——#AI hearing: Altman admits to lying Capital is pouring in wildly European, Japanese, Korean, and emerging markets all outperforming US stocks Those who have been firmly holding US stocks for the past decade are starting to waver ——#Japanese government bond yields hit 29-year high Some grit their teeth and chase in Some are still trembling with cash on the sidelines betting it will rise betting it will crash soon The feeling of missing out is a hundred times worse than losing money 🥲 ——#Dormant 8-year whale empties $1.35 billion ETH in four days But this frenzy's underlying tone is South Korean retail investors averaging 3x leverage with financing balances as high as 34 trillion KRW On May 12 KOSPI just touched a historic high of 7999 points then immediately dropped 5.1% intraday ——@天才交易员绿毛 The combined market wealth of US, Japan, and South Korea exceeds $85 trillion Behind this number are countless leveraged accounts refreshing market pages repeatedly late at night countless FOMO traders after seeing your updates quietly open their trading apps ——@天才少女秋秋 Then ask themselves: If I enter now am I getting on board or taking the bag? 😏

Something serious has happened #日本国债收益率创29年新高 Family, Japanese government bonds have hit new highs again @八喜Zora_OKX $BTC might plunge! As of May 2026, yields on multiple maturities of Japanese government bonds have successively reached nearly 29-year or even historical highs. The 10-year government bond yield, a key long-term interest rate indicator, peaked at 2.535%, the highest level since 1997; the 5-year government bond yield even set a historical high. This round of rising Japanese bond yields is the result of multiple factors, which can be summarized into four core points: 1. Complete shift in monetary policy: The central bank has fully exited easing. After ending negative interest rates in 2024, the Bank of Japan raised rates to 0.75% by December 2025 and completely withdrew from the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy, no longer supporting bond prices through unlimited bond purchases. The central bank, as the largest buyer of government bonds in the market, exiting directly caused bond prices to fall and yields to rise. The April meeting minutes showed a significant increase in hawkish sentiment internally, and there is a possibility of rate hikes in June, reinforcing market expectations of tightening. 2. Persistent inflation pressure: Imported inflation intensifies rate hike expectations. After the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused international oil prices to soar, combined with yen depreciation pushing up import costs, significantly increasing Japan's imported inflation pressure. Japan's core inflation has long exceeded the 2% policy target, and the Middle East conflict further raises the risk of a second-round inflation effect. 3. Fiscal expansion pushing up risk premium: Japan's government debt size has set new records for 10 consecutive years, reaching 1,343.84 trillion yen by the end of fiscal 2025, accounting for over 260% of GDP, the highest among major developed economies globally. In fiscal 2026, Japan plans to issue 29.6 trillion yen in new government bonds. Coupled with election cycles where parties propose tax cuts and fiscal stimulus promises, market concerns about Japan's fiscal sustainability are rising. 4. Global market linkage: US bond yield rise driving the trend. US inflation data exceeded expectations, pushing the US 10-year Treasury yield up to 4.35%, leading to a global bond market expectation of "higher rates for longer," with Japanese government bonds following the global trend upward. Impact on markets and economy 1. On Japan domestically: Government debt servicing pressure surges. With rising yields, Japan's government bond issuance costs have increased sharply. Interest payments on Japanese government bonds in 2026 have reached 31.3 trillion yen, about one-quarter of the total budget, creating a cycle of "rising yields - increased interest payments - further bond issuance - continued yield rise." Meanwhile, Japanese domestic banks and life insurance companies hold about 390 trillion yen in Japanese government bonds; every 1 percentage point increase in yield causes valuation losses of tens of trillions of yen. 2. On global markets: Capital repatriation triggers liquidity contraction. To offset domestic bond valuation losses, Japanese financial institutions have begun selling overseas risk assets and repatriating funds to Japan, causing a global liquidity contraction. Overseas risk assets such as US dollar assets face additional selling pressure. Some analysts call Japan the "powder keg" of the global bond market. 3. Different impacts on investors: Suitable for long-term allocation, short-term speculation requires caution. For long-term investors, the current 10-year government bond yield above 2.4% is historically high for Japan and suitable for stable cash flow-focused long-term allocation; however, for short-term investors, yields are still on an upward trajectory, bond prices may continue to fall, and short-term speculation carries significant unrealized loss risks.

Charge forward, a new round of shakeout is coming $BTC $ETH $LAB Japanese investors' scale of selling US Treasuries hits a new high since 2022 🥸🥸🥸🥸🥸🥸 As bets on a Fed policy reversal grow, Japanese investors have sold US sovereign bonds at the highest level in nearly four years. According to Japan's international balance of payments data released Wednesday, in the three months ending March 31, Japanese investors net sold various bonds issued by the US government, government agencies, and local authorities totaling 4.67 trillion yen (about 29.6 billion USD). This scale of selling is the highest since Q2 2022. #US April CPI recorded 3.8%, exceeding expectations #Japanese government bond yields hit 29-year high #Waugh confirmed to take over Fed on May 15

#日本国债收益率创29年新高 Japanese government bonds have exploded, and the global liquidity pump is back!! The yield on Japanese government bonds has directly hit a 29-year high, and the yen is still falling. This scene is too familiar. The financial institution earthquake triggered by the carry trade unwind last year still haunts us. This time, will there be another round of global liquidity tightening chain reaction? The crypto market has always been more sensitive to macro signals than a dog. If global liquidity tightens further, BTC and the entire sector won’t just face a short-term pullback; it may have to endure a longer adjustment period. In Asia, with the yen depreciating so much, will funds accelerate into crypto assets to hitch a ride, or will they flow back to traditional safe havens? The movement of Japanese government bonds this time is likely to be the most important external variable for the crypto market in the second half of the year. How big do you think the impact will be? Let’s discuss in the comments!! On the eve of the storm, is $BTC bottoming out or preparing to dip? Don’t guess blindly; tonight’s CPI might give us a direction… #美国4月CPI今晚20:30揭晓 #星球日报 $ETH $SOL

Last year, the market's biggest fear was the unwinding of carry trades. Once the financing cost of the yen rises, those who previously borrowed low-interest yen to buy US stocks, high-yield assets, or crypto will start recalculating their positions. Now that Japanese yields continue to rise, it's actually a reminder to the market: the cheapest global liquidity might not be as stable as before. If the yen continues to appreciate, another round of unwinding pressure will come, and highly volatile assets like BTC will definitely be affected. It's not that the crypto market logic has worsened, but when large funds start deleveraging, many assets will be sold off together. Japanese government bond yields have surged to a 29-year high. If the bond market continues to spiral out of control, the impact won't be limited to Japanese stocks but will affect global risk assets. No matter how strong BTC is in the short term, it can't withstand a sudden liquidity drain. #日本国债收益率创29年新高 @八喜Zora_OKX @米妮Minnie_OKX @OKX星球

💥 Japanese government bonds are going on-chain! The trillion-dollar era of RWA begins, ONDO wins effortlessly 1. Core Facts * Timeline: Pilot from April to September 2026, commercial launch by the end of 2026 * Participants: Mizuho, Nomura, JSCC + global blockchain firm Digital Asset * Scale: Total Japanese government bonds at $7.5 trillion, initially $1.6 trillion repurchase market going on-chain * Features: 24-hour trading, real-time cross-border settlement, T+0 instant settlement (traditional government bonds only trade on business days) * Scope: Institutional trading only, retail investors not yet allowed ❌ Misconceptions: This is not "ordinary people buying government bond tokens," not "all government bonds going on-chain immediately," not a "small-scale experiment," but a historic global financial move ⸻ 2. Significance for the RWA Sector 1. Sovereign endorsement + regulatory compliance: The world's second largest sovereign debt, G7 country + top banks jointly prove RWA is the future of traditional finance 2. Explosive market size: Global on-chain US debt is only $12.8 billion, Japanese government bond repurchase market alone is $1.6 trillion, RWA scale jumps from billions to trillions 3. Institutional capital entry: 24-hour trading + T+0 settlement attracts pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, banks with trillion-dollar capital 💡 Conclusion: RWA is no longer a niche narrative but the core of global finance, officially entering a trillion-dollar golden age ⸻ 3. ONDO: The Biggest Beneficiary of RWA * Model validation: ONDO tokenized US debt, Japanese government bonds on-chain validate the "compliance + on-chain government bonds" model is globally replicable * Business expansion: From US debt leader to global government bonds, clients expand from US asset managers to global central banks, sovereign funds, and Japanese/European banks * Valuation re-rating: Current market cap about $2 billion, expected to start with a 10x increase, becoming the global RWA infrastructure leader * Clear barriers: Traditional institutions and small RWA projects cannot replicate ONDO's cross-chain compliance + global liquidity advantages 📌 Summary in one sentence: ONDO is the biggest winner of Japanese government bonds going on-chain, with high certainty, strong logic, and huge upside potential ⸻ 4. Risk Warnings 1. Pilot delays → commercial launch postponed 2. Regulatory changes → global compliance framework still evolving 3. Increased competition → giants may enter, but ONDO has a clear first-mover advantage ⸻ 5. Final Conclusion * RWA sector: Upgraded from niche narrative to core of global finance, trillion-dollar space opens * ONDO: Direct beneficiary, high certainty, valuation re-rating starting at 10x * Core view: Japanese government bonds going on-chain is not the end, but the beginning of a global sovereign debt on-chain wave $ONDO

Major Warning ⚠️ Japan's government bond yields hit a 29-year high! $BTC The real risk has arrived Many are still focused on the crypto market charts But they are ignoring the biggest global liquidity hidden bomb that is about to explode 💣 Last year, the market's biggest fear was one thing: unwinding of yen carry trades In the past, huge global funds borrowed ultra-low interest yen crazily To buy US stocks, high-yield bonds, and cryptocurrencies, earning the interest rate spread Now Japan's government bond yields are soaring to a 29-year high This means the cheapest global borrowing cost is directly rising Once the yen continues to appreciate and financing costs increase All risk assets previously leveraged by yen carry trades Will be forced to deleverage and be sold off collectively $BTC's fundamentals haven't worsened But large funds are passively selling assets to repay debt If the bond market gets out of control, it drains global liquidity No matter how strong a coin is in the short term, it can't withstand a sudden liquidity drain Next key focus: Japanese bond yields and yen exchange rate These are the external variables that will decide BTC's survival 📊 #日本国债收益率创29年新高 #星球日报

Simply put, Japan's recent interest rate hike has caused quite a stir. Previously, everyone was used to borrowing cheap yen to "buy, buy, buy" globally. Now that Japanese government bond yields have hit a 29-year high, it means borrowing has become more expensive, and everyone needs to quickly sell their assets to raise cash and pay off debts. Once this "global liquidity drain" effect kicks in, the asset sell-off caused by last year's arbitrage liquidation could very well repeat. For the crypto market and investors, this is definitely a major test in the short term. When liquidity tightens, risk assets like those in the crypto space are often treated as "ATMs" and sold off first to raise cash, so don't expect a big rally anytime soon. As for Asian investors, they are currently caught in a dilemma: on one hand, the yen's depreciation is unsettling, prompting a desire to buy BTC as a hedge; on the other hand, their own government bond yields have finally risen, making large capital inflows to earn interest quite attractive. Overall, it's not yet time to be aggressive—preserving principal and watching the yen's flow back is the prudent approach. $BTC $ETH $SOL #日本国债收益率创29年新高 #矿企Q1集体亏损转型AI求生 #沃什5月15日接任美联储

🌸 A signal that many people don't pay much attention to, but every time it erupts, it causes the global market to collectively turn sour, has lit up again today. Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen to 2.54%, the highest level since June 1997 — a figure not seen in nearly 29 years. ‼️ Key data: Japan 10-year government bond yield: 2.54%, highest since June 1997 USD/JPY: 157.419, yen weakening in sync Japan's long-term interest rates continue to climb, accelerating the Bank of Japan's monetary policy normalization process 🔍 Quick science: What is yen carry trade? For the past thirty years, Japan has maintained near-zero or even negative interest rates. Global institutional investors have thus developed a fixed operation: borrow low-interest yen → convert to higher-yield currencies like the dollar → invest in risk assets such as US stocks and crypto to earn the interest rate differential. This trade is extremely large, estimated to be in the tens of trillions of dollars. The problem is: once Japanese interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing yen increases, making this trade "unprofitable." Institutions will sell risk assets and buy back yen to repay — this process is called "carry trade unwinding," which can trigger linked selling pressure on global assets in a short time. 📌 Three perspectives on this new yield high: ❶ 2.54% is not just a number, but a signal of structural turning point Japan's farewell to the "zero interest rate era" is not overnight — but every new high in yields confirms this trend is real. When Japanese government bonds offer nearly 3% risk-free returns, domestic institutions (insurance companies, pension funds) will start reallocating overseas assets back to the domestic bond market. This is a slow-moving variable, but the direction is certain. ❷ USD/JPY at 157 proves carry trades have not yet been unwound on a large scale If carry trades were unwound massively, the yen should appreciate sharply (institutions buying back yen) — but with USD/JPY still at 157, it shows the market has not panicked to unwind positions, and carry trade exposure remains large. This means risk has not been released but is accumulating. ❸ The next trigger point: Bank of Japan's stance Every BOJ policy meeting and Governor Ueda Kazuo's speeches are potential triggers for carry trade unwinding. If the BOJ signals further rate hikes, USD/JPY at 157 could quickly reverse, putting global risk assets under liquidity pressure. 💬 How big do you think the risk of yen carry trade unwinding is now? 👏🏻 Feel free to share your judgment in the comments ⬇️

#星球日报 <05.12> 📊 Market Snapshot ↓ $BTC $81,291.4　📉 -0.18% $ETH　$2,315.5　 📉 -1.70% $SOL　$96.66 　 📈 +0.86% 🌟 Today's Key Highlights: ① Warsh 49-44 cloture passed · Fed Chair confirmed to enter final full Senate procedure · Powell countdown to handover before May 15 ② Crypto funds saw weekly inflows of $857.9 million, the third highest this year · CLARITY markup catalyst on May 14 · Bit Digital +19% / Circle +16% surge ③ Circle launches Arc blockchain ($3 billion valuation) + AI Agent Stack · Solana Alpenglow testnet goes live · Ripple Prime raises $200 million 🔥 Trending Discussions on Planet: (Planet - Discover - Hot Topics) ❶ US April CPI to be announced tonight at 20:30 ➋ Mining companies collectively posted Q1 losses, pivoting to AI for survival ➌ Japanese government bond yields hit a 29-year high 📢 Important Announcement: OKX Event Contract Product Update https://www.okx.com/zh-hans/help/okx-event-contract-may-product-update

#Japan's government bond yields hit a 29-year high Major alert｜Japan's bond yields hit a 29-year high! Yen carry trade unwind may impact the crypto market🔥 📊 Key data highlights - Japan's 10-year government bond yield surged to 2.54%, the highest since June 1997, nearly 29 years - USD/JPY strengthened simultaneously, reaching 157.419 🔍 Deep logic: BOJ's monetary policy normalization accelerates Long-term rates continue to rise, sending a clear structural signal: the Bank of Japan is exiting negative interest rates and accelerating monetary tightening. 💥 Biggest risk: Yen carry trade unwind, global liquidity tightening 1. Domestic Japanese bond yields rise, prompting large-scale repatriation of overseas Japanese funds to the domestic bond market 2. Global USD liquidity passively contracts, putting pressure on risk assets 3. Historical review: Yen carry trade unwind has repeatedly triggered severe volatility in global stock and crypto markets ⚠️ Crypto market key focus BTC and other crypto assets are highly sensitive to global liquidity. Subsequent BOJ official statements and further rate fluctuations will directly affect market trends. Beware of correlated sell-offs caused by carry trade unwinds. #星球日报 #波动雷达：币种异动观察 @OKX中文 @OKX星球 @OKX成长学院 $BTC $ETH $OKB

Japan's 10-year government bond yield has surged to 2.545%, a 29-year high, while the yen remains stuck at 157, completely uncontrollable. The problem lies in the interest rate differential. Japan is at 0.75%, the US at 3.75%, and carry trades borrowing yen to invest in high-yield assets simply can't stop. The central bank intervened last week with $35 billion, but it was reversed within days. This time, the traditional safe-haven logic is reversed. Previously, when Japan had issues, money flowed into the yen; this time, the bond market itself is a minefield, and its safe-haven function is fading. The central bank's April meeting minutes were just released, with several members calling for faster rate hikes; the probability of a rate hike in June has soared to 77%. The expectation of rate hikes combined with carry trade inflows means bond market pressure will likely continue to increase. On the other hand, there is movement as well. The Japan Exchange Group (JPX) announced last week that once the legal framework is in place, crypto ETFs can be launched at any time, and several asset management companies are already preparing products. The reality is straightforward: Japan's debt is nearly 240% of GDP, raising rates only adds to its own problems, while not raising rates means giving up on the exchange rate, leaving very limited room. The purchasing power of ordinary people's yen is shrinking, and just holding cash is unrealistic. Therefore, this round of funds may not quietly flow back into traditional safe havens. Gold and $BTC both have opportunities to absorb some of the structurally exiting money. The trend is there; it's not a matter of a day or two. #日本国债收益率创29年新高