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$ETH Evening Market Update It's the weekend, brothers, so there's not much to say about the market. BTC has been sideways all day, just shaking there. Honestly, you can't really get much from this kind of market, just one sentence — as long as 2298 doesn't break, nothing will happen. Look at the previous bullish segment, the pullback didn't make a new low, the low point held. As long as 2298 doesn't break, the root of this bullish run is still intact. If it really breaks, don't overthink it, just look down to 2250, which is the previous low. Once it hits there, then consider bottom fishing. Want it to rise? Fine, first get past the 2345 hurdle. Once that's cleared, then we can think about 2390 and higher. If it can't get past, it'll just oscillate between 2345 and 2298. Staying stable here is already good enough for the weekend. Don't always dream of getting rich quick, no need for that. There are just two key moves: At 2331, if it breaks with volume, chase the long, targets are 2379 and 2423. Eat the gains and run, don't get greedy. At 2303, if it breaks down with volume, chase the short, targets are 2263 and 2231. The key point — it must be with volume, no volume, no action. Eight out of ten breakouts without volume are fakeouts, they spike to trigger your stop loss and then reverse. We don't take that loss. If it holds above 2331 on the hourly chart, 2379 and 2423 are possible targets. But on the 4-hour chart, let me say again: the lows are gradually moving up, but the highs haven't been made yet, 2426 is stuck there. As long as it doesn't break 2426, all the rises are just rebounds, don't get carried away. For a true 4-hour trend, both highs and lows must move up, which means 2426 must be broken. Before that, if it rallies, take profits and run, don't ride the roller coaster. Tonight, just let it consolidate, no rush. Wait for it to choose a direction and move with volume, then we act, with good stop losses, steady and safe. $ETH $BTC $SOL #新手成长营

$BTC Evening Market Update Yesterday's pullback likely found a bottom around 79232. It couldn't bounce without fully dipping, and the subsequent rebound is the best proof of that. Next, there are two resistance levels to watch above: 80867, then 81672. If it breaks through, it could test the previous high again. But be cautious—if it can't hold or shows a clear false breakout this time, failing to surpass the previous high could easily form a double top. Once a double top forms, a major correction is inevitable. But that's for later; let's focus on the present. As long as it doesn't break 80319, nothing serious will happen. If it breaks 80319, this short-term trend is broken, and the price will likely test 79500 first, then around 79100 where there was a recent wick. If this range holds, it will be a consolidation phase, and there's still a chance after some grinding; If it doesn't hold, a new low is truly coming. · On the hourly chart, a volume-backed break above 80867 means go long, targeting 81631 to 82800. If it can't break higher, stay put. · A volume-backed break below 80391 with a failed rebound means go short, targeting 79544, then down to 78777. · Stop-loss is a must. On the daily chart, pay close attention at tomorrow's close to see if it can engulf the previous bearish candle on the left. If it does, the EMA200 will be crossed accordingly. Holding above EMA200 on the daily chart means $BTC is truly ready to take off. The premise is it doesn't fall back; if it does, it won't be able to fly. $BTC $ETH $SOL

Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs collectively raised about $693 million this week, with capital preference continuing to concentrate on leading products. Ethereum ETFs notably achieved their first weekly net inflow in May, breaking the recent sluggish trend. #比特币ETF：连续六周净流入 BlackRock remains the absolute leader. Its Bitcoin ETF IBIT alone attracted $596 million this week, accounting for over 90% of total BTC ETF inflows, with cumulative assets raised reaching $66.1 billion; the Ethereum ETF ETHA saw even stronger inflows, with a weekly net inflow exceeding $100 million, bringing the cumulative total to $12 billion, almost single-handedly returning ETH ETFs to a net inflow status. BlackRock's other Ethereum product ETHB also gained a modest $6.02 million, reinforcing its "dual-line capital attraction" pattern. Bitcoin ETFs have maintained net inflows for the sixth consecutive week, with a weekly net inflow of about $623 million, though internal differentiation is significant. ARK 21Shares' ARKB and Fidelity's FBTC saw inflows of $53.09 million and $52.22 million respectively, while Morgan Stanley's MSBT and Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) also attracted capital. In contrast, the high-fee Grayscale GBTC experienced an outflow of $62.28 million, and VanEck HODL, Bitwise BITB, as well as BTC ETFs under Invesco, Valkyrie, and Franklin all suffered outflows, indicating capital is withdrawing from higher-cost or less liquid products and migrating toward larger-scale products like BlackRock's. Ethereum ETFs recorded a net inflow of about $70.49 million this week, reversing the previous several weeks of decline. However, market divisions persist. Besides BlackRock's dominance, Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH) received $6.33 million in inflows, but Grayscale's older product ETHE saw an outflow of $8.38 million, indicating capital is rotating within Grayscale to lower-cost holdings. Fidelity's FETH recorded a net outflow of $32.16 million, and 21Shares TETH also saw a slight outflow, reflecting that institutional positioning in Ethereum remains in an exploratory phase. As of the statistics, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is about $13.73 billion, accounting for 4.94% of Ethereum's total market capitalization, with a historical cumulative net inflow of $12.09 billion. BlackRock's products almost support the entire sector's growth and sentiment; if this concentration continues to rise, market influence will further tilt toward them. $BTC $ETH $SOL

Over the past week, the market has swung between conflict pulses and easing signals. Mutual retaliatory strikes between the US and Iran once triggered panic, but the announcement of a three-day ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine eased the tense geopolitical nerves. The US dollar continued its decline, with the dollar index DXY closing at 98.05 on Friday, marking five consecutive weeks of losses; gold maintained its high resilience, closing at $4710.48 per ounce, experiencing a mild pullback for the second consecutive week, but its strong trend remains unchanged. Commodities were particularly volatile, with geopolitical premiums sharply retreating, and crude oil being the hardest hit. Brent crude fell below the $95 mark, WTI crude dipped to around $90, nearly erasing the earlier panic-driven gains. Looking ahead to next week, a series of major events will follow one after another. Kevin Walsh, the incoming Federal Reserve Chair, is expected to be confirmed by the Senate on Monday and will officially take over the Fed from Powell on May 15, marking the countdown to policy transition and style shift. Immediately after, the US April CPI inflation report released on Tuesday will directly test whether the market’s rate cut expectations remain solid. The stock market has already positioned itself at high levels. As of this Friday, the S&P 500 has gained 8% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq has surged nearly 13%, with both indices setting new historical records. The crypto market has also experienced an emotional rollercoaster: Bitcoin briefly broke through $82,000, reaching its highest point since late January, but news of Iran attacking a US Navy vessel quickly dragged it back below $80,000. Currently, the price is fluctuating around this psychological threshold. Additionally, although the Q1 earnings season is nearing its end, the remaining narratives of strong performers and sudden crashes are still enough to influence the short-term direction of stocks and crypto assets. With geopolitical risks fading, the Fed’s power transition imminent, and a major inflation test approaching—can US stocks maintain their highs? Can Bitcoin hold above $80,000? Will crude oil continue to seek a bottom or stabilize and rebound? Many uncertainties are converging in the coming week, awaiting the market’s unfolding answers. $BTC $ETH $BZ #比特币ETF：连续六周净流入

The most vulnerable point for Bitcoin right now isn't whether it will rise or fall next, but that the leveraged positions are stacked too unevenly. As soon as the price moves about $10,000 in either direction, it will trigger a massively unbalanced liquidation: · On the long side, nearly $14 billion in leveraged positions could be forcibly liquidated at any moment · On the short side, there's only a mere $4 billion This isn't a small gap; it's like one side of the battlefield is packed with people while the other side is almost empty. In this market, where the "crowd" is densest and liquidity is thickest, that area becomes the first target for price sweeps. Veteran traders seeing this skewed distribution all picture the same scenario: the storm won't necessarily blow away the sparse side first, but is more likely to crash directly into the crowd. Especially with several recent signals pointing to the same thing— Retail investors' appetite for risk has returned, altcoin open interest is rapidly expanding, and longs near $80,000 keep adding positions. Meanwhile, the long-term buying from ETFs has given many a false sense of comfort that "it’s hard for the price to drop much further here." When "it can’t fall further" becomes a common consensus, the stacked long positions below are no longer a defense but a magnet—specifically attracting the price back for a cleanup. Of course, looking up, there’s also a cluster of short stop-losses around $83,000 to $84,000. So the whole situation isn’t a one-sided minefield; both sides have fuses. But judging by the "prey" size, the long side’s meat is just too thick to ignore. So the real question now isn’t "Is Bitcoin bullish or bearish in the long term?" It’s which group the market will want to devour first when the next violent move kicks off. $BTC $ETH

$BTC $ETH Midday Market Update Don't try to catch the bottom on that left-side dip of BTC; there's no reversal yet. But look at the recent rebound—it's quite interesting: each high is higher than the last, and the lows are also gradually rising. It broke the previous high, the pullback didn't break the previous low, and finally, it made a new high. These three steps show the internal structure is strong, no doubt. The 80378 level held, confirmed on the pullback, and then bounced back up, so treat this as a rebound for now. Next, watch 81631 closely; this level has been tested multiple times before without breaking through. Whether it can break through this time is key. If it does, then we can talk about a reversal; if not, stay cautious. · If it rises above 80820 with volume, go long targeting 81631 and 82800, with stop-loss in place. · If it falls back to 80364 and fails to recover, go short targeting 79534 and 78769, with stop-loss as well. · The 79190 level is a bottom line; if it breaks, don't hold on—there's a high chance the downtrend won't be contained. For ETH, it's simpler—just watch one line. As long as the bullish trendline holds, it’s unlikely to test 2306, let alone drop deeply. A fake break below 2306 is allowed, but it must recover quickly; if not, congratulations, 2263 is next. To move up, it must first break through the previous spike, then target 2345. Only after surpassing 2345 can the hourly chart continue to look bullish. · Break above 2332 with volume, go long targeting 2373 and 2400. · Break below 2306 with volume, go short targeting 2263 and 2229. · Near 2400 on the upside, you can try shorting; if it breaks 2425, exit. · Place a long order on the left side at 2197; if it breaks 2173, accept the loss. To sum up: for BTC, focus on those key levels; for ETH, watch the trendline. Enter when there's a signal, wait when there isn't—don't overcomplicate things. Don't skip stop-losses; staying alive is the most important thing. $BTC $ETH #新手成长营

Many people are cheering for the 78% drop in Gas fees, feeling that playing on-chain will finally be painless. I'm not so optimistic because the ETH I hold might see its most valuable story in recent years dismantled by this upgrade. Why did everyone once value ETH so highly and give it such a high valuation? Because of EIP-1559, which burns fees, making the total supply even deflationary—more robust than Bitcoin. This "ultrasonic currency" label is almost half the soul of its valuation. #ETH网络升级倒计时 But the reality? Since everyone got used to playing on layer 2, the ETH burned daily on the mainnet has dropped from $30 million to a pitiful $500,000. After the Merge, you might think it's deflationary? In fact, the total supply has been quietly increasing, with an annual inflation of 0.2%. With Glamsterdam landing, fees are cheaper, but the amount burned is definitely less. Unless a super popular app suddenly clogs the mainnet, the amount issued by PoS node staking will quickly surpass the amount burned, turning the "deflationary miracle coin" back into an "ordinary inflationary coin." Just thinking about how the market will revalue it keeps me up at night. And to those who keep watching ETF data shouting "institutions are rushing in to buy for me," I really want to pour cold water on that. The big players' calculations are about to hit me in the face. On the surface, net inflows of tens of millions in a single day look like a rush to accumulate. But I specifically talked to some old friends who are market makers, and their feedback is that many traditional institutions buying ETH don't have as much faith as you think. They simply treat Ethereum as a high-beta version of Bitcoin to allocate—when Bitcoin rises, they buy some ETH to amplify gains; when Bitcoin looks like it will fall, ETH is the first to be dumped. This money comes fast and goes faster, like a mudslide, not smart long-term money coming for the Glamsterdam tech revolution. To know if institutions really believe in this upgrade, just looking at inflows these days is useless; we have to wait until the testnet launch. If at that time ETFs keep buying aggressively for several days regardless of Bitcoin's mood, then institutions are truly voting with their feet, and that would be a signal we can somewhat trust. Honestly, the above is still about money, but what worries me most is that this upgrade is about to shake up too many people's cakes—a battle for "family division" inside Ethereum is about to start. ePBS, to put it simply, is about taking the middleman role of Flashbots and putting it on the protocol's public table to share. Flashbots used to make tens of millions of dollars in profits per quarter from MEV relays, living comfortably. Now the code is written into the base layer, and their role instantly becomes dispensable. Do you think they will just sit and wait to die? These clever folks have secretly set up BuilderNet to try a new track. But no matter how they struggle, the core monopoly profits will be squeezed out—this is a silent transfer of interests. Even worse than these giants are the small retail validators quietly running at home. Previously, connecting to Flashbots' MEV-Boost, if lucky to catch a "sandwich attack" big payoff, one block could equal months of usual earnings. With Glamsterdam, on the surface, everyone competes fairly, but block building ultimately depends on who can get top-tier order flow, which decentralized code can't solve—it still relies on connections and capital. Now the top builders like Beaverbuild can chew up 40% of blocks alone, and the top five take 80%, holding a very stable position. The code lowers the entry barrier, but real power remains concentrated in very few hands. I'm worried that once the middleman is removed and MEV profits are spread thinner and more evenly by the program, small validators will find running costs exceed earnings and eventually shut down. That would be the scariest moment of Ethereum's foundation loosening. See, this is not a simple happy technical iteration; it's clearly a redivision of the interest cake, tearing down old labels and reapplying new ones, with everyone secretly wrestling for position. Some will get rich in this reshuffle, but some old giants are destined to be toppled. Honestly, I hold ETH myself and am optimistic, but my nerves are really tight, with take-profit and stop-loss orders set early. In this industry, it's meaningless to see who makes money faster; surviving longer is the real skill. Don't get hyped by a few brainless hype posts only to find yourself rushing in full of faith, just to be the one taking the losses for someone else's gamble. $ETH $BTC $SOL

Here's something many haven't fully grasped: The current US-Iran ceasefire negotiations aren't really about whether they can reach an agreement or not. Both sides are in a standoff, the intermediary is controlling the pace, and the market is being toyed with. The situation is far more complex than it appears on the surface. #美伊停火：MOU框架仍在推进 The entire deadlock in the negotiations boils down to one issue—the duration of uranium enrichment. The US is firmly holding onto 12 years, having previously demanded 20 years. Don't think this is just a random figure thrown out there; it's a starting point for bargaining. To be honest, 12 years is the White House's real bottom line. Even one year less would be impossible to justify to domestic and Middle Eastern allies. This isn't a probe; it's a red line that cannot be crossed. Iran is even more straightforward. The acceptable range tops out at 5-8 years; 12 years already crosses their domestic political red line. The so-called room for compromise has never been about increasing the number but about whether they can remove the "automatic extension upon breach" clause, which is a draconian term. If the US insists stubbornly on 12 years without budging, this framework can't be agreed upon at its root. What tortures the market most now is this deadlock that won't break. The first round collapsed, the second round has no scheduled date, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, yet neither side declares the talks terminated. I'll be blunt: this situation impacts oil prices and overall market sentiment more unpredictably and painfully than a complete breakdown. A breakdown is clear-cut; risks are calculated once, and funds know whether to withdraw or stay. But this stalemate is the worst: on one hand, it keeps hopes alive for restarting talks, suppressing oil price surges; on the other, the Strait blockade and supply risks loom overhead, preventing prices from falling. Daily sporadic news causes whipsaw trading, volatility is high but without a clear trend, risk premiums rise passively, and everyone can only watch, unable to make long-term decisions. There's another key point most people overlook: These negotiations aren't direct US-Iran talks; Pakistan is the intermediary relaying messages throughout. Don't think it's just a neutral mediator; the interests involved directly determine whether this MOU can be finalized or deliberately slowed down. Pakistan can act as this intermediary not only because of proximity and shared borders but also because its own energy security and border stability are tied to the Persian Gulf situation. It fears conflict escalation more than anyone. But let's be clear, mediators are never selfless. Does Pakistan have motivation to "moderately delay" the talks? Absolutely. If talks conclude quickly, the US will immediately reduce its dependence on Pakistan; if talks collapse, war and refugees will first impact Pakistan's domestic economy. Only by maintaining a "framework progressing slowly, pace dragging, no finalization" state can Pakistan hold diplomatic leverage on both sides and gain the most practical benefits. It won't let the talks fail, but it definitely won't rush to the finish line. In short, for a long time to come, the US-Iran ceasefire won't see a sudden breakthrough nor a complete fallout. The core deadlock is the 12-year red line standoff; the situation remains stuck but unbroken, the intermediary quietly controls the pace, and the market can only oscillate amid high uncertainty. Don't be misled by short-term news surges; understand the underlying dynamics to see where the volatility truly stems from. $BTC $ETH $SOL

Just checked the data, a net inflow of 3.4 billion over six weeks, which looks pretty impressive at first glance…… #比特币ETF：连续六周净流入 But if you break down that money, 60% of it has flowed into the two big players IBIT and FBTC, while the smaller ETFs are just left out in the cold. Honestly, I feel for those smaller products—their liquidity can't compare, market-making costs are higher, and retail investors barely know them. How are they supposed to survive? They might start liquidating in a couple of months. It's not that Bitcoin is failing; it's just that this market only recognizes the big players right now. Another thing. Last night I looked at the options data, and call option open interest in the 85-90K range hit the highest level of the year. Tom Lee also came out saying 76K is the bull-bear dividing line. Think about the mindset here—the market isn’t just saying "I think it will go up," it’s literally putting money down to bet within a very narrow range. So what’s the most interesting scenario going forward? The monthly close lands between 80-84K. If it closes above 80K, everyone claps, "Target met," and the party continues. But if it falls just short and closes below 80K, believe me, a bunch of people will immediately say this is the top of the range and it’s time to exit. One monthly candle’s position sets the tone for the next two months—that’s how brutal it is. Oh, and one more thing—I want to ask if you’ve noticed that this wave of ETF money coming in almost coincides exactly with news of easing US-China trade tensions? I don’t buy it as a coincidence. It’s obvious: when macro eases up, the big players dare to add positions. The only fear is that one day the negotiation table slams shut, and the money pulls out faster than it came in—then you’ll know who’s here for long-term investing and who’s just here to make a quick buck. So now I basically don’t stare at the candlesticks obsessively. Holding coins, I focus tightly on three things: concentration of funds, where options bets are placed, and the "mood" of the macro environment. This thing has long been more than just digital gold; it’s a big mix—a stew of policy, sentiment, and big institutional games all stirred together. If you understand where these three forces are headed, you’ll naturally have a pretty good sense of what’s coming. $BTC $ETH $SOL

The hottest topic recently in the community is the SEC's new regulations. Many people only looked at the surface and started cheering for regulatory progress and industry deregulation, but there's really no need to be so optimistic. #SEC双线监管：链上定义与预测市场 To put it simply, the SEC is making two moves simultaneously: on one hand, revising the core definitions on-chain, and on the other, intervening in prediction markets. Ostensibly, this is to streamline the rules, but behind the scenes, it's all about paving the way for future consolidation. Many insiders can see the details clearly at a glance. Let's first talk about what everyone cares about most: the SEC rewriting the definitions of exchanges and brokers, even moving closer to on-chain protocols, and granting DeFi front-ends a five-year registration exemption. Many are cheering, saying this is finally modernizing regulation and giving DeFi a chance to survive. To be frank, don't get carried away by this small sweetener. Clarifying the rules has never been about loosening restrictions; it's about drawing clear boundaries so that in the future, whoever they want to regulate and however they want to regulate will have legal grounds. Now they give you exemptions and some ambiguity, but once the industry grows bigger, they can tighten the screws anytime. Any DeFi protocol can easily be labeled as an exchange or broker. This is not deregulation; it's clearly laying the groundwork for comprehensive regulation and digging legal traps. Next, about the SEC and CFTC teaming up to investigate geo-trading—outside people are praising this as the two major regulators finally uniting and ending internal conflicts. To be realistic, there is no unified regulation; they just found a juicy target and teamed up to share the spoils. Over the years, jurisdiction battles have never been resolved; one regulates commodities, the other securities. Prediction markets have always been the most ambiguous area. This joint action is just each managing their own turf without stepping on each other's toes, and boosting their presence together. The so-called collaboration is just a temporary alliance; once the matter is over, they'll resume fighting for authority and internal conflicts. Don't expect any long-term unification. Finally, the most practical point: if the SEC classifies a large number of prediction contracts as securities, it will have a real impact on us ordinary players and the entire sector. Currently, Polymarket and Kalshi can operate under the CFTC framework, but once they fall under the SEC's securities regulation system, the whole game changes drastically. Products won't be able to innovate flexibly anymore; pre-approval, registration filings, mandatory disclosures will slow down launch speeds by tenfold, and sensitive topics will be cut; User thresholds will be raised sharply—global open participation will be impossible, with mandatory KYC, asset verification, and trading limits all enforced. Retail and overseas players will most likely be blocked out; In the end, the advantages of decentralization will vanish, leaving only large platforms that can bear sky-high compliance costs to monopolize the market. Small projects and purely on-chain models will either be eliminated or forced to leave the U.S. market entirely. Looking at the whole situation, I have never seen it as a positive. Every move the SEC makes is pulling the industry from chaotic wild growth toward controlled traditional finance. On the surface, the rules are clearer; behind the scenes, the authority is tightening, giving you short-term breathing room in exchange for long-term control. Don't be too idealistic. The crypto industry has long passed the era of wild growth. Those who survive next will never be the most daring innovators, but the ones who understand the rules best and are most willing to comply. $BTC $ETH $SOL