陈桂林谈交易
陈桂林谈交易
There is a trend to play the trend, and there is no trend to play the fluctuation.
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The primary productive force of my personal trading system---mindset;
On the importance of the mental victory method, daily psychological massage in the community.
For those not in the community, remember to give yourself some psychological massage from time to time, don't set your expectations too high, just being able to make a profit is good enough.
To start with the conclusion:
Trump has one more week before his visit to China, and I believe that from now until the end of the visit (May 15), there shouldn't be any geopolitical surprises (negative factors).
Now the background:
The US stock indices have been trading sideways since the end of October last year, finally completing a risk release due to geopolitical reasons. During this period, many stocks including the MAGS7 group experienced a more thorough risk release.
Current situation:
This rally is led by the US stock storage sector, which drove the geopolitically suppressed US stocks to complete a trend upward; the rhythm I can sense is—the leaders keep rising, MAGS catch up, other sectors rotate (with AI still the focus), and then junk stocks flood the market, but so far, junk stocks have not flooded the market yet.
Key point: the crypto space:
Many say the crypto market is junk, purely dragged by the US stock market, and there is definitely some sentiment involved; however, it should be noted that during the period when US stocks were suppressed and falling due to geopolitical pressure, the crypto market was actually quite resilient and had its own rhythm (after falling a lot, it rises). So, if we treat the crypto market as a small US stock market? (Bitcoin as the leader, MEME leading sentiment, mainstream coins catching up, junk finishing?) Now, I believe we are at the stage of mainstream coins catching up. (This has also been the strategy I've been advocating since Bitcoin broke 80,000, with multiple reminders in X and the community.)
There is no market that only falls without rising, nor one that only rises without falling. When the bears start to surrender and turn bullish, we need to be more cautious—watch the timing and sentiment.
Listen carefully to the sound! This is basically an open card, is $SOL about to stand tall?
Sigh, I don't dare to jump in on the storage explosion, can't catch the meme coins in the crypto world, can only play with the big mainstream catch-up like this...
It's hard, really hard!
You say you're afraid the market cap is too big and there's no room?
$NVDA rose 10% in 4 days, $SOL rose 12% in 3 months, completely outperforming Nvidia; this is the strength of the absolute champion of the last season in the crypto world.
This voice message says:
1. $SPY and $QQQ both broke previous highs, 5% and 10% respectively;
2. while MAGS7 hasn't yet, so there is a need for a catch-up rally;
3. among MAGS7, TSLA's rhythm is hard to grasp, Microsoft is too weak, Google has already broken previous highs by a lot;
4. $NVDA was bought on the pullback, so $AAPL will make a breakout.
Even without brokerage software, there are plenty of places outside to trade these two targets.
陈桂林谈交易
When it comes to the US stock market, we can't not mention $NVDA.
First, the conclusion: I believe that NVIDIA is definitely undervalued right now, with a PE of 40 and a dynamic PE of 24, which are at relatively low points. Currently, funds are just being attracted to more appealing storage options, and this pullback presents a very good opportunity to build positions;
The trend for AI hasn't changed, and the trend for NVIDIA hasn't changed either. A healthy pullback means it's time to get on board.
From a technical perspective: it has been consolidating for 150 days, and the weekly MACD is testing the zero line; breaking out of the previous high in a push wave, with daily moving averages in a bullish arrangement, perfectly aligning with the trading strategy of looking for wave 1, buying wave 2, and waiting for wave 3.
Don't look down, look up (see the chart). In a word, just do it!
You who get ecstatic after a 1% drop are just like me back in the day, getting hyped after a 1% rise.
陈桂林谈交易
$BTC is in a downtrend, with heavy resistance when it tries to rise; similarly, in an uptrend, there is heavy resistance when it tries to fall.
At present, the current downtrend level of BTC is still very small. In plain terms, it is just a consolidation phase now, and a pullback cannot be confirmed yet, let alone an expansion of the downtrend.
Just use moving averages, structure, and volume clusters to find support.
$BTC is in a downtrend, with heavy resistance when it tries to rise; similarly, in an uptrend, there is heavy resistance when it tries to fall.
At present, the current downtrend level of BTC is still very small. In plain terms, it is just a consolidation phase now, and a pullback cannot be confirmed yet, let alone an expansion of the downtrend.
Just use moving averages, structure, and volume clusters to find support.
陈桂林谈交易
This is how the market is—it unfolds step by step, and signals gradually emerge from chaos to clarity.
Therefore, before the market has fully developed, you cannot force analysts or traders to give you a definitive conclusion about where the market must go;
After all, once the market unfolds and aligns with their trading system, they will naturally speak up without being pushed, won’t fear being wrong, and will act with their positions.
Regarding the COINBASE and CIRCLE distribution contract expiring in August, here is the explanation from @grok.
Looking at it this way, CIRCLE is in a very weak position in this contract, basically like a tenant farmer in the old society;
Although CIRCLE's other business revenues are growing rapidly, the main business income (the vast majority) is still interest income (and they have to share so much with COINBASE!!!)!!!
This is how the market is—it unfolds step by step, and signals gradually emerge from chaos to clarity.
Therefore, before the market has fully developed, you cannot force analysts or traders to give you a definitive conclusion about where the market must go;
After all, once the market unfolds and aligns with their trading system, they will naturally speak up without being pushed, won’t fear being wrong, and will act with their positions.
Murphychen
The chip structure renders the formation process of BTC's bottom more three-dimensional.
BTC is following the script mentioned in the quote! While investors across the entire market are focusing on the 200-day moving average, if we combine this with chip structure analysis, we can gain a deeper understanding of price behavior.
Although BTC has been oscillating in the 60k-70k range for 2 months, there is only one real position where large funds entered to bottom-fish — $66,000, where 440,000 BTC were accumulated, including 240,000 BTC that changed hands between February and April.
Visually, 60k seems like the lowest price, but very few funds actually bottom-fished in the 60k-63k range; even those who did sold during the rebound (because the chip quantity in the 60k-63k range is now similar to that in January).
Therefore, when analyzing the bottom structure, we should not take 60k as the starting point but rather use the entry of funds (the concentrated turnover area) as the standard. Clearly, the 78k-82k range has not yet seen enough turnover; funds are entering cautiously, and divergences need to be digested.
However, the chip proportion in the 65k-78k range has already reached 13.8%. By comparison, before the FTX crash in the previous cycle, in October 2022, the chip proportion in the $18,000-$23,000 range was 18.7%.
Although there is still a 5 percentage point gap, we must consider that in this cycle, traditional funds like ETFs and MSTR have locked nearly 13% of circulating chips at relatively high levels. Therefore, the chip proportions allocated to other ranges must be relatively smaller.
So, I personally believe that the 13.8% circulating chip accumulation in the 65k-78k range forms a foundational bottom structure.
Of course, given time, if this foundation becomes more solid (with a second retest entering this range and further turnover), it will have stronger "resilience" than before and become a true bottom range!
The world's largest market cap stock $NVDA can go up 5% one day, then 3% the next;
I can only say inflation is too severe, which is good news for bitcoin bitcoin:native.
The price of 196 at the time of the clear signal was basically the lowest point, it's not that I'm awesome, just a coincidence.
陈桂林谈交易
When it comes to the US stock market, we can't not mention $NVDA.
First, the conclusion: I believe that NVIDIA is definitely undervalued right now, with a PE of 40 and a dynamic PE of 24, which are at relatively low points. Currently, funds are just being attracted to more appealing storage options, and this pullback presents a very good opportunity to build positions;
The trend for AI hasn't changed, and the trend for NVIDIA hasn't changed either. A healthy pullback means it's time to get on board.
From a technical perspective: it has been consolidating for 150 days, and the weekly MACD is testing the zero line; breaking out of the previous high in a push wave, with daily moving averages in a bullish arrangement, perfectly aligning with the trading strategy of looking for wave 1, buying wave 2, and waiting for wave 3.
Don't look down, look up (see the chart). In a word, just do it!