经济学家上调美国通胀预期，因战争推迟对美联储降息时间预期
BlockBeats 消息，5 月 22 日，随着伊朗战争引发的价格冲击开始从能源成本向更广泛领域蔓延，经济学家们上调了对美国通胀的预测，并推迟了美联储下次降息的时间表。他们预计，核心 PCE 指标将比此前预期的涨幅更高，两个通胀指标到今年年底都将维持在 3% 以上。对于美联储是否会在 12 月降息，经济学家们看法各占一半，而此前调查中他们曾预测下次降息将在 10 月到来。
Wilmington Trust Corp 首席经济学家卢克·蒂利表示，这似曾相识的感觉又来了，美联储和市场担心能源价格飙升会引发通胀，就像他们去年担心关税会引发通胀一样。考虑到消费者支出已经比较疲弱，他们在加油站花更多钱的同时，更有可能通过削减其他项目的支出来应对。调查显示，经济学家仍认为今年美国消费者支出和国内生产总值将增长约 2%，与此前预测基本持平『未来 12 个月内发生衰退的概率下降至 25%。此外，经济学家小幅上调了对今年美国就业增长的预测，但仍预计失业率将在第三季度达到 4.5% 的峰值。(金十)
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