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Vitalik 访谈揭示预言机安全隐忧：现有解决方案存在中心化与博弈论缺陷

TechFlow
TechFlow

深潮 TechFlow 消息，01 月 28 日，据Foresight News最新访谈，以太坊创始人Vitalik Buterin在与Joe Zhou的对话中透露，他去年在Polymarket上投资44万美元，赚取了7万美元的收益。Vitalik的策略很简单：寻找陷入"疯狂模式"的预测市场，然后押注"疯狂的事情不会发生"。例如，当市场出现"特朗普会获得诺贝尔和平奖"或"美元明年归零"等极端预测时，他会选择押注相反结果，这种反向投资策略通常能够获利。

Vitalik还分享了一个关于预言机(Oracle)漏洞的案例：在一个关于乌克兰战场的预测市场中，由于数据源(ISW战争研究所)的地图错误更新，导致一个原本概率仅5%的事件突然变为100%确定性事件，引发市场混乱。他指出当前预言机面临两种解决路径：中心化模式依赖如彭博社等可信机构提供信息；代币投票(Token Voting)如UMA协议的去中心化模式。但Vitalik表示，UMA模式存在博弈论缺陷，大户可能联手操纵投票结果，普通用户难以对抗。目前DeFi行业普遍选择相信Chainlink，但其机制较为复杂且相对中心化。Vitalik认为，可信的预言机对于DeFi和现实世界资产上链至关重要，行业仍需寻找更好的解决方案。

LINK-5.00%
UMA-3.80%
ETH-2.93%
05:16 · 01/28/26·2.73K views·
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