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Im still of the same opinion as last week:
$BTC fundamentals remain bearish in the LTF.
1. CB premium continues to be deeply negative
2. ETF outflow was enormous in the last 7 days ($1.5Billion) as risk assets took a hit from rising bond yields + 13F filings that showed funds like Harvard Endowment & others cut $BTC ETF positions
3. Saylor has elected to use cash to do buybacks vs LTF BTC buys.
4. $STRC is ex divided as of Friday (equity price is sub $100) meaning they cant buy more $BTC
5. @SpaceX IPO in 3 weeks will act as a liquidity vacuum for risk assets, esp crypto
6. $BTC closed the weekly below $78k while NQ is starting to show weakness going into a low liquidity summer which is traditionally a poor time for risk
7. Dollar strength $DXY continues to climb with yields
8. All the TA reasons my friend @Tom__Capital notes as well :
CryptoCondom
5 reasons crypto doesnt look great to me:
👉Unusual & large bearish LTF put positions hit the tape today for both $ETH and bitcoin:native with exp 5/29/26 for $500m ($135m notional for $ETH + $373m notional for bitcoin:native
👉$BTC ETF outflow has been significant for a week now since 5/6/26. Outflow today alone was $345m negating all STRC pre-dividend buying (which was low too btw)
👉$STRC raise has been anemic compared to prior months....and we are approaching ex dividend again where volumes/buying will be in decline after. (aka: Investors buy STRC before the 15th ex-dividend date → volumes spike → Strategy issues more shares → buys more BTC)
👉Coinbase premium has been negative since 4/27/26
👉We're entering a period of structural weakness in equities starting next week thru end of summer
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