Israel is reportedly preparing a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities -- and this is the geopolitical event that every risk asset needs to watch. The US-Iran conflict already drove April CPI to 3.8% via oil prices. An Israeli direct strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure is escalation of a different magnitude -- one that could trigger Iranian retaliation against Gulf oil infrastructure or US assets. Crude at $100+ is not a tail risk in that scenario; it is the base case. For crypto, the short-term impact would be severe. BTC is at $78,146 already, down from $82K highs on inflation fears alone. Active military conflict between Israel and Iran triggers a global risk-off move that hits every asset simultaneously. Liquidity collapses, leverage gets unwound, and even the ETF floor would be tested harder than it has been. The crypto market is more resilient than 2022, but geopolitical war is a different category of risk entirely. The medium-term picture flips the script. If Iranian oil comes off global markets, the inflationary spiral worsens -- which strengthens the Bitcoin debasement thesis over 12-24 months. Military conflict is short-term bearish for BTC, long-term bullish for hard assets. The trade depends entirely on your timeline. How much of your portfolio are you holding in cash if an Israel-Iran military conflict starts? #IsraelPrepsIranStrike